Iran is miscalculating. This is a true existential issue for Israel and having gone for it they are not backing down shortnof complete strategic victory. I believe Israel is waiting to see if Trump will use the B2 bomber to take out the mountain. If not Israel will do what it has to do. It is not conceivable that Israel will end this war with any Iranian capacity intact I believe Russia and China knows this and will not intervene in any significant way.
I think the Iranians believe that they can get their allies, namely Qatar and the EU to keep Trump from attacking Fordow, and then Trump can then get the Israelis to back down. I think they look at Trump as a baffoon. I also dont think they are afraid of the US, they see us as weak and decadent.
I think they also think they have a righteous cause and that God is only testing them right now. Nothing speaks of insanity more than a religious lunatic. They believe their own rhetoric.
I think Israel is too far invested to stop now, no matter what Trump does, and will if they have to send in sayeret makal to destroy Fordow.
I do hope the Iranian people rise up in some way. They will never have a better chance than now in overthrowing the evil mullahs. But if they dont have the courage for that, then how they come out of this war is all on them.
Apparently Trump blinked and has decided to try “diplomacy” .because something is going to be different in the next 2 weeks that didn’t work over the last 50 years. The deep state ecstatic which only shows you how idiotic this move is. The mullahs are right. Israel is completely alone.
Good analysis. Agreed, time is on their side. They have patience and will wait 100 years if they have to. I am also concerned that Hezbollah, the Houthi’s etc are giving us a head fake that they don’t want to be involved. And then, as Andrew posits, when Iran decides to go for a last blast they join in. Additionally, world wide terror attacks are very viable and the Iranians realize that most of the world will ultimately put the blame on Israel.
There's another reason Iran could be holding back some firepower: Israel isn't their only enemy. They want to be able to threaten - or defend themselves from - the Sunni Arab states. 'That's a lovely oil refinery you've got there. Pity if something happened to it...' Etc.
The best introduction to the thinking of the Supreme Leader is the Hamas Covenant of 1988. It explains that it is every Muslim's duty to cleanse Palestine of non-Muslims. This is a commandment from God and it is non-negotiable. The Supreme Leader really believes that this is his holy mission.
'Iran’s leadership believes that time is on its side.' Maybe after Trump's announced plan just now, as ever your excellent analysis and discussed points head up events.
If the US does not use the B2, I wouldn’t be shocked if Israel sends in commandos to go after Fordow. It would be a suicide mission, to a degree, but I don’t see any other way to neutralize that site.
It is one thing to outlast a more powerful opponent when you are a rag-tag insurgency, it is quite another when you are an established government that has to run a country. Israel and/or the U.S. can destroy Iran's nuclear sites and long-range missile production factories from a distance and there is nothing Iran can do to stop it.
Iran is miscalculating. This is a true existential issue for Israel and having gone for it they are not backing down shortnof complete strategic victory. I believe Israel is waiting to see if Trump will use the B2 bomber to take out the mountain. If not Israel will do what it has to do. It is not conceivable that Israel will end this war with any Iranian capacity intact I believe Russia and China knows this and will not intervene in any significant way.
I think the Iranians believe that they can get their allies, namely Qatar and the EU to keep Trump from attacking Fordow, and then Trump can then get the Israelis to back down. I think they look at Trump as a baffoon. I also dont think they are afraid of the US, they see us as weak and decadent.
I think they also think they have a righteous cause and that God is only testing them right now. Nothing speaks of insanity more than a religious lunatic. They believe their own rhetoric.
I think Israel is too far invested to stop now, no matter what Trump does, and will if they have to send in sayeret makal to destroy Fordow.
I do hope the Iranian people rise up in some way. They will never have a better chance than now in overthrowing the evil mullahs. But if they dont have the courage for that, then how they come out of this war is all on them.
Apparently Trump blinked and has decided to try “diplomacy” .because something is going to be different in the next 2 weeks that didn’t work over the last 50 years. The deep state ecstatic which only shows you how idiotic this move is. The mullahs are right. Israel is completely alone.
Good analysis. Agreed, time is on their side. They have patience and will wait 100 years if they have to. I am also concerned that Hezbollah, the Houthi’s etc are giving us a head fake that they don’t want to be involved. And then, as Andrew posits, when Iran decides to go for a last blast they join in. Additionally, world wide terror attacks are very viable and the Iranians realize that most of the world will ultimately put the blame on Israel.
There's another reason Iran could be holding back some firepower: Israel isn't their only enemy. They want to be able to threaten - or defend themselves from - the Sunni Arab states. 'That's a lovely oil refinery you've got there. Pity if something happened to it...' Etc.
The best introduction to the thinking of the Supreme Leader is the Hamas Covenant of 1988. It explains that it is every Muslim's duty to cleanse Palestine of non-Muslims. This is a commandment from God and it is non-negotiable. The Supreme Leader really believes that this is his holy mission.
'Iran’s leadership believes that time is on its side.' Maybe after Trump's announced plan just now, as ever your excellent analysis and discussed points head up events.
I hope Trump stays focused enough to use the B2.
If the US does not use the B2, I wouldn’t be shocked if Israel sends in commandos to go after Fordow. It would be a suicide mission, to a degree, but I don’t see any other way to neutralize that site.
It is one thing to outlast a more powerful opponent when you are a rag-tag insurgency, it is quite another when you are an established government that has to run a country. Israel and/or the U.S. can destroy Iran's nuclear sites and long-range missile production factories from a distance and there is nothing Iran can do to stop it.