So I started to read this, and realised I needed a large Vodka and my cigarettes to cope .. well until the end, nice rabbit out of the hat Mr Fox..
So my questions/comments are as follows and NONE of these need your response, you work hard enough without having to answer my questions x
- [ ] Have Gazan’s started to wake up to the realisation that they are used as cash cows and cannon fodder by their leadership? I see a few on social media, but is there a ground swell from the people? Only they can really delegitimise Hamas, Iran et al are they brave enough? Self aware enough? Sick enough of hating to choose another path? I know we hope , but these are not people who choose wisely unfortunately and Israelis have made the mistake in the past that Palestinians want to live in peace as Israelis do .. Oct 7th blew that myth out of the water
- [ ] I look at Lebanon with its terror state within its state, and if they are not using this as an opportunity to kick out Hezbollah once and for all , what hope is there that any other Arab state will have the balls to take on responsibility for Gaza? Will they not be concerned if they open their borders to help Gazans they may well be importing a problem just as happened in Jordan and Kuwait
- [ ] What chance is there of getting rid of UNRWA? The UN is made up of Israel haters, how we ever going to dismantle that?? And without that how can we ever change the ideology pumped into Palestinian children from the moment they can walk?
- [ ] Can Trump be trusted to go for long term gain as opposed to his love of short term optics?
- [ ] Most heartbreaking of all is, and I have thought this for a while, the only way to truly crush Hamas is to sacrifice the hostages , this drip feeding of their return only emboldens Hamas, allows them to regroup .. but I also know that there is absolutely no way, ever , that we can do that , ever, it will break the soul of Israel, it will break the soul of who we are as Jews; it might be the only real military option , it might only be the real chance to end this cycle of violence once and for all and also prevent hostage taking in the future but there is not a Jewish person on this planet that would ever sanction that, or recover from it
- [ ] How do you deal with disingenuous parties like Qatar?
- [ ] And your idea of mini Emirates? Genius.. you gave me hope as promised… I read elsewhere about Hebron today , and it’s a game changer . I hope, I pray that you have influence within all the right circles , that this is actually on the table as a future for real peace in the region
- [ ] Oh .. and there is a reason why Gazans share so much culturally and linguistically with the Egyptians .. that made me laugh out loud
I hate to provide the turd for the punchbowl but your solution (which of course makes perfect sense) has literally NO chance of ever being implemented. The reason is because almost the entire world, all the figures of the disgusting United Nations and nearly the full Democratic party in the United States has defacto accepted Palestinianism. They have internalized the view that Israel was born illegitimate, that the Palestinian situation is Israel's fault, that Israel must be pressured "to make concessions" and that at least on some level Palestinian terror is "understandable". They are not going to change, not going to support the rejection of Palestianism you call for, not going to ensure that Hamas and other demonic terror entities are not control and not going to put the blame where it lies. Trump is too erratic and too unable to think strategically to support a plan like this which would enormous consistent pressure on all the parties currently supporting Palestinianism and strategic patience. I believe Marco Rubio or Nickey Haley or Ron DeSantis could be relied on. But not Trump. And of course the Democrats cant be relied on at all.
As there is no entity that would enable Israel to avoid a military presence to ensure its citizens are not massacred, the IDF will remain involved to a great degree. Only if these clans rose up on their own and put an end to Hamas (and the PLO) with extreme prejudice could there be a prayer of this working.
I like your West Bank proposal but the Gaza situation is much more difficult imo. Arab culture is rampant with corruption and this will factor heavily in any reconstruction plans for Gaza. In addition, the “my enemy is your enemy” position wrt Hamas will only last as long as Hamas. Once they are effectively removed from power, I believe these clans will turn their attention back to hating Israel and wanting its destruction. We have to be very careful not to arm and fund new adversaries in Gaza and I’m not sure how you do that. It will be a wholesale power grab and they will use Israel as the common enemy upon which to build a coalition. Sadly, I think the only option for Gaza is to largely vacate it - relocate the people to the West Bank or other Arab states. Also having Egypt involved in the governance or rebuilding of Gaza is a non-starter for me. They hate Israel and clearly were helping to arm Hamas through the tunnels at the Philadelphi corridor. Why would we want them involved in any way? SA, UAE, Jordan - these are the states we should involve.
I love the vision presented, but ummm - no mention of the West Bank settlements and continuing settler violence apparently unchecked by Israeli authorities? Whether one is for or against maintenance, expansion or elimination of the West Bank settlements, any serious vision of peace has to include a realistic plan for settlements, including how the plan can be accomplished and be workable as part of a peaceful future.
I always go to Andrew's analysis of the Gaza situation first, as he is the commentator most able and willing to present the situation from all angles. Yet here he chooses to sidestep one of the most vital issues, and the issue that prior to October 7 was probably the most damaging to Israeli credibility in the West. The future of the settlements may be a potato too hot to handle, but any credible plan for peace needs to address it.
I much prefer your commentaries when they stick to military matters. Your geopolitical insights are interesting, as many others, but do not have anything special or much different to recommend. We agree on one thing, it is a mess. Expertise gets diluted if stretched too far.
Well, I’d advise finding someone else, as my military expertise is limited solely to tactical and operational levels and, quite frankly, for the most part I have moved on from that because I’m not in the Army any more. All my military strategy analysis comes from my academic study, which specialises in Middle Eastern strategy—if multiple degrees and publications don’t suggest expertise to you, you’re welcome to look elsewhere.
So I started to read this, and realised I needed a large Vodka and my cigarettes to cope .. well until the end, nice rabbit out of the hat Mr Fox..
So my questions/comments are as follows and NONE of these need your response, you work hard enough without having to answer my questions x
- [ ] Have Gazan’s started to wake up to the realisation that they are used as cash cows and cannon fodder by their leadership? I see a few on social media, but is there a ground swell from the people? Only they can really delegitimise Hamas, Iran et al are they brave enough? Self aware enough? Sick enough of hating to choose another path? I know we hope , but these are not people who choose wisely unfortunately and Israelis have made the mistake in the past that Palestinians want to live in peace as Israelis do .. Oct 7th blew that myth out of the water
- [ ] I look at Lebanon with its terror state within its state, and if they are not using this as an opportunity to kick out Hezbollah once and for all , what hope is there that any other Arab state will have the balls to take on responsibility for Gaza? Will they not be concerned if they open their borders to help Gazans they may well be importing a problem just as happened in Jordan and Kuwait
- [ ] What chance is there of getting rid of UNRWA? The UN is made up of Israel haters, how we ever going to dismantle that?? And without that how can we ever change the ideology pumped into Palestinian children from the moment they can walk?
- [ ] Can Trump be trusted to go for long term gain as opposed to his love of short term optics?
- [ ] Most heartbreaking of all is, and I have thought this for a while, the only way to truly crush Hamas is to sacrifice the hostages , this drip feeding of their return only emboldens Hamas, allows them to regroup .. but I also know that there is absolutely no way, ever , that we can do that , ever, it will break the soul of Israel, it will break the soul of who we are as Jews; it might be the only real military option , it might only be the real chance to end this cycle of violence once and for all and also prevent hostage taking in the future but there is not a Jewish person on this planet that would ever sanction that, or recover from it
- [ ] How do you deal with disingenuous parties like Qatar?
- [ ] And your idea of mini Emirates? Genius.. you gave me hope as promised… I read elsewhere about Hebron today , and it’s a game changer . I hope, I pray that you have influence within all the right circles , that this is actually on the table as a future for real peace in the region
- [ ] Oh .. and there is a reason why Gazans share so much culturally and linguistically with the Egyptians .. that made me laugh out loud
Thank you as always x
I’d say possibly the best thought out hope giving scenario I’ve seen yet.
Incredibly detailed and fascinating analysis, every angle covered. Excellent and interesting to read.
This struck a point:
'However, short-term political gains should not override long-term security wisdom.'
Plenty in recent history to support that.
Some hope. Not a lot, but some……
I hate to provide the turd for the punchbowl but your solution (which of course makes perfect sense) has literally NO chance of ever being implemented. The reason is because almost the entire world, all the figures of the disgusting United Nations and nearly the full Democratic party in the United States has defacto accepted Palestinianism. They have internalized the view that Israel was born illegitimate, that the Palestinian situation is Israel's fault, that Israel must be pressured "to make concessions" and that at least on some level Palestinian terror is "understandable". They are not going to change, not going to support the rejection of Palestianism you call for, not going to ensure that Hamas and other demonic terror entities are not control and not going to put the blame where it lies. Trump is too erratic and too unable to think strategically to support a plan like this which would enormous consistent pressure on all the parties currently supporting Palestinianism and strategic patience. I believe Marco Rubio or Nickey Haley or Ron DeSantis could be relied on. But not Trump. And of course the Democrats cant be relied on at all.
As there is no entity that would enable Israel to avoid a military presence to ensure its citizens are not massacred, the IDF will remain involved to a great degree. Only if these clans rose up on their own and put an end to Hamas (and the PLO) with extreme prejudice could there be a prayer of this working.
I like your West Bank proposal but the Gaza situation is much more difficult imo. Arab culture is rampant with corruption and this will factor heavily in any reconstruction plans for Gaza. In addition, the “my enemy is your enemy” position wrt Hamas will only last as long as Hamas. Once they are effectively removed from power, I believe these clans will turn their attention back to hating Israel and wanting its destruction. We have to be very careful not to arm and fund new adversaries in Gaza and I’m not sure how you do that. It will be a wholesale power grab and they will use Israel as the common enemy upon which to build a coalition. Sadly, I think the only option for Gaza is to largely vacate it - relocate the people to the West Bank or other Arab states. Also having Egypt involved in the governance or rebuilding of Gaza is a non-starter for me. They hate Israel and clearly were helping to arm Hamas through the tunnels at the Philadelphi corridor. Why would we want them involved in any way? SA, UAE, Jordan - these are the states we should involve.
I love the vision presented, but ummm - no mention of the West Bank settlements and continuing settler violence apparently unchecked by Israeli authorities? Whether one is for or against maintenance, expansion or elimination of the West Bank settlements, any serious vision of peace has to include a realistic plan for settlements, including how the plan can be accomplished and be workable as part of a peaceful future.
I always go to Andrew's analysis of the Gaza situation first, as he is the commentator most able and willing to present the situation from all angles. Yet here he chooses to sidestep one of the most vital issues, and the issue that prior to October 7 was probably the most damaging to Israeli credibility in the West. The future of the settlements may be a potato too hot to handle, but any credible plan for peace needs to address it.
Addressed in the final instalment of the series!
I haven’t read it yet but there better be some hope in this one x
Some…
I hope sensible politicians are taking heed of your insightful analyses.
A better plan would be to relocate the Gaza population and Israel extends from the river to the sea.
All I can say is, may it be so.
I much prefer your commentaries when they stick to military matters. Your geopolitical insights are interesting, as many others, but do not have anything special or much different to recommend. We agree on one thing, it is a mess. Expertise gets diluted if stretched too far.
Well, I’d advise finding someone else, as my military expertise is limited solely to tactical and operational levels and, quite frankly, for the most part I have moved on from that because I’m not in the Army any more. All my military strategy analysis comes from my academic study, which specialises in Middle Eastern strategy—if multiple degrees and publications don’t suggest expertise to you, you’re welcome to look elsewhere.
Agree. Cannot think of anyone better placed to present analysis as insightful and often prescient than you.