There is no such thing as surrender by the theocracy. There is shame involved in giving up or allowing non-Muslims dictate to Muslims. Khameini would die before giving an inch, and the west doesn’t seem to get it. They are not dealing with a rational government or leadership, but one whose lives belong to Allah. Until the Iranian people overthrown khameini and his supporters, there will be no negotiation.
The US administation wants to emphasize that this isn't about regime change, because it's well known that the "alternatives" would be even more terrible. After 45 years of totalitarian rule, all "moderate" alternatives have been destroyed, and the "Revolutionary Guards" will establish an even more terrible repression—if that's possible.
The fundamental problem is and remains ISLAM. This alleged "religion" fundamentally lays claim to worldly rule; in Islam—regardless of its "interpretation"—there is simply no separation between the secular and spiritual spheres and power.
Unlike in Judaism, and likewise, after centuries of cruel aberrations, also in "Christianity."
For centuries, "the West," the so-called "Judeo-Christian heritage," has fought to make this a reality.
The big unanswered question is why "the West" then allows masses of members of a "religion" into its countries that explicitly oppose this separation of world and religion.
Islam MUST be banned unless Islamic religious communities explicitly and irrevocably ***theologically*** establish and reinforce absolute individual freedom of belief - including "DISbelief" - and the separation of society/state/government.
Even within Islam, this is possible; not easy, but there are such "interpretations" that have only been persecuted in "official" Islam for over a thousand years.
This "Western" indifference towards Islam must finally be abandoned; such fundamental reorientations must be demanded of Islam, otherwise it cannot and must NOT be "tolerated." Jews and Christians must not "tolerate" anything that leads to their own offslaughtering as on October 07.
In an administration like Trump's, which relies on self-proclaimed "radical" supposed "Christians" who are barely distinguishable from "orthodox" Islam, such demands appear self-contradictory.
And the "Democrats" are drowning in the stupidity of their "tolerance."
Without determination and clarity on these matters, all the suffering and struggles of the masses occupied by Islam will be in aimless vain.
Thank you for this excellent analysis and for all you have written and done since 2023. In the end whether the regime falls or not a few things have clearly been accomplished that needed to be.
1. Israel has restored its psychological deterrence. Clearly the world friend and foe alike understands that the Israelis mean what they say and they will now act whenever they perceive this kind of threat regardless of what anyone else has to say.
2. At least for the duration of the Trump administration, the United States has restored the notion that its words threats and promises are not empty platitudes. This may well vanish with a return of the Democrats.
I wish Israel would target the notorious political prisons. Allow prisoners to escape, kill guards if possible. Even if the regime stays in power, perhaps many of these unfortunates might be able to be hidden by symphasisers.
Is this even feasible? Or are these prisons too far from possible refuges?
You manage to understand, analyze and explain to the reader a very complex topic in the simplest and most accessible way.
It is difficult for me to imagine how complex and unique the operation to destroy Iran's nuclear program was, but I understand that it should lead to a qualitative change.
I would like to hear from you how possible you think a qualitative (strategic) change is. After all, if everything that was done did not have the goal of overthrowing and destroying the regime, we will ultimately get the same regime, only without the nuclear weapons that they can get in a short time. There remains the threat of Islamist influence in the Middle East, there remains an expansionist policy aimed at subordinating the Islamic world and expanding influence in other regions. And most importantly, there remains an axis of states dissatisfied with their position in the world order (Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, and this list can be replenished with the addition of those countries that feel the strengthening of this axis). Iran will not be alone and counts on external assistance. Therefore, a deal with him is a push to further strengthen the positions of Iran and its allies. Iran currently has no motivation to capitulate, and any deal with him, from its point of view, is if not a victory, then an avoidance of defeat.
Online psyops, disinformation, political division, and the realignment of axis' (democracy/authoritiarian) are also a huge weapon in how Qatar-IRGC-Putin are using their weapons to retain power and to strike back. That will was already partly broken in 2017 and further cracked in 2020 and smashed to smithereens on October 7-8 2023.
Thank you for the deep and extensive analysis Andrew.
One element briefly mentioned is attacking the income sources of the Iranian regime.
In my way, given the ideological motivations of the regime, this is the path the most likely leading to success.
Israel can start taking out vital distribution structure for gas and oil, after stating clearly that it will stop only after the regime’s surrender.
No gas and oil means hardly any income for the regime and the IRGC. This is not sustainable, they will have to surrender. No income means the whole country will collapse in chaos, opening the way to a revolution by the Iranian opposition.
Of course it will make the oil and gas prices spike, but this would be a temporary spike. As soon as the regime is gone, and a new government is installed, prices should go back to normal.
The power of bombast is almost infinite but I believe it is indeed feasible that the Ayatollah is in the clutches of deadly mental and psychological breakdown if he is in fact still alive!!! Not seen for sure! Not heard from for sure ! One brilliant move that the free world should contemplate and encourage is the strong creation and support for a new government of the Iranian people who despise the evil governing regime! “The good people of Iran live “! We must help them! All brilliant ideas are on the table!!!!
It’s my understanding that Iran is a major source of oil to China. You don’t mention them, but I can’t see indefinite silence from the CCP, especially not if there’s a threat to their vital fuel supply.
Religious fanaticism will play a role, no doubt. I’m not sure mullahs and the IRGC cares what happens to the average citizen.
There is no such thing as surrender by the theocracy. There is shame involved in giving up or allowing non-Muslims dictate to Muslims. Khameini would die before giving an inch, and the west doesn’t seem to get it. They are not dealing with a rational government or leadership, but one whose lives belong to Allah. Until the Iranian people overthrown khameini and his supporters, there will be no negotiation.
The US administation wants to emphasize that this isn't about regime change, because it's well known that the "alternatives" would be even more terrible. After 45 years of totalitarian rule, all "moderate" alternatives have been destroyed, and the "Revolutionary Guards" will establish an even more terrible repression—if that's possible.
The fundamental problem is and remains ISLAM. This alleged "religion" fundamentally lays claim to worldly rule; in Islam—regardless of its "interpretation"—there is simply no separation between the secular and spiritual spheres and power.
Unlike in Judaism, and likewise, after centuries of cruel aberrations, also in "Christianity."
For centuries, "the West," the so-called "Judeo-Christian heritage," has fought to make this a reality.
The big unanswered question is why "the West" then allows masses of members of a "religion" into its countries that explicitly oppose this separation of world and religion.
Islam MUST be banned unless Islamic religious communities explicitly and irrevocably ***theologically*** establish and reinforce absolute individual freedom of belief - including "DISbelief" - and the separation of society/state/government.
Even within Islam, this is possible; not easy, but there are such "interpretations" that have only been persecuted in "official" Islam for over a thousand years.
This "Western" indifference towards Islam must finally be abandoned; such fundamental reorientations must be demanded of Islam, otherwise it cannot and must NOT be "tolerated." Jews and Christians must not "tolerate" anything that leads to their own offslaughtering as on October 07.
In an administration like Trump's, which relies on self-proclaimed "radical" supposed "Christians" who are barely distinguishable from "orthodox" Islam, such demands appear self-contradictory.
And the "Democrats" are drowning in the stupidity of their "tolerance."
Without determination and clarity on these matters, all the suffering and struggles of the masses occupied by Islam will be in aimless vain.
Thank you for this excellent analysis and for all you have written and done since 2023. In the end whether the regime falls or not a few things have clearly been accomplished that needed to be.
1. Israel has restored its psychological deterrence. Clearly the world friend and foe alike understands that the Israelis mean what they say and they will now act whenever they perceive this kind of threat regardless of what anyone else has to say.
2. At least for the duration of the Trump administration, the United States has restored the notion that its words threats and promises are not empty platitudes. This may well vanish with a return of the Democrats.
Iran. Mullahs, nothing to gain, not much to lose. Never safe to assume it is done with us then.
Good helpful summary.
Andrew, thanks for this. Do you tbink we will ever (and if so, how) get credible Intel on how much material Iran may have managed to stash away?
I wish Israel would target the notorious political prisons. Allow prisoners to escape, kill guards if possible. Even if the regime stays in power, perhaps many of these unfortunates might be able to be hidden by symphasisers.
Is this even feasible? Or are these prisons too far from possible refuges?
Not a bad idea. The Taliban did it to free their prisoners.
hey! from today’s Its Noon in Israel by Amit Segal: Israel bombed the gates of Iran’s notorious Evin Prison earlier today, June 23. 🙏🏼
Andrew, amazing analysis.
You manage to understand, analyze and explain to the reader a very complex topic in the simplest and most accessible way.
It is difficult for me to imagine how complex and unique the operation to destroy Iran's nuclear program was, but I understand that it should lead to a qualitative change.
I would like to hear from you how possible you think a qualitative (strategic) change is. After all, if everything that was done did not have the goal of overthrowing and destroying the regime, we will ultimately get the same regime, only without the nuclear weapons that they can get in a short time. There remains the threat of Islamist influence in the Middle East, there remains an expansionist policy aimed at subordinating the Islamic world and expanding influence in other regions. And most importantly, there remains an axis of states dissatisfied with their position in the world order (Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, and this list can be replenished with the addition of those countries that feel the strengthening of this axis). Iran will not be alone and counts on external assistance. Therefore, a deal with him is a push to further strengthen the positions of Iran and its allies. Iran currently has no motivation to capitulate, and any deal with him, from its point of view, is if not a victory, then an avoidance of defeat.
Online psyops, disinformation, political division, and the realignment of axis' (democracy/authoritiarian) are also a huge weapon in how Qatar-IRGC-Putin are using their weapons to retain power and to strike back. That will was already partly broken in 2017 and further cracked in 2020 and smashed to smithereens on October 7-8 2023.
Thank you for the deep and extensive analysis Andrew.
One element briefly mentioned is attacking the income sources of the Iranian regime.
In my way, given the ideological motivations of the regime, this is the path the most likely leading to success.
Israel can start taking out vital distribution structure for gas and oil, after stating clearly that it will stop only after the regime’s surrender.
No gas and oil means hardly any income for the regime and the IRGC. This is not sustainable, they will have to surrender. No income means the whole country will collapse in chaos, opening the way to a revolution by the Iranian opposition.
Of course it will make the oil and gas prices spike, but this would be a temporary spike. As soon as the regime is gone, and a new government is installed, prices should go back to normal.
Hoping that the regime will collapse, but doubting that it will. Things will get worse before they get better…………..IF they get better.
The power of bombast is almost infinite but I believe it is indeed feasible that the Ayatollah is in the clutches of deadly mental and psychological breakdown if he is in fact still alive!!! Not seen for sure! Not heard from for sure ! One brilliant move that the free world should contemplate and encourage is the strong creation and support for a new government of the Iranian people who despise the evil governing regime! “The good people of Iran live “! We must help them! All brilliant ideas are on the table!!!!
If this were an international relations course, the obvious answers would be 3 and 2
It’s my understanding that Iran is a major source of oil to China. You don’t mention them, but I can’t see indefinite silence from the CCP, especially not if there’s a threat to their vital fuel supply.
China has a long-standing non-interventionist military policy. I’d be surprised if they break it for Iran.