Options 1 and 2 are not options. Israel is in such a commanding position it cannot possibly afford to let either the regime survive and ESPECIALLY not with that reactor intact. To do this would be truly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This is a once in a century opportunity to bring about serious and lasting change for the better. It could be done in a flash if the US took direct action. But if not Israel must persevere. No negotiations.
I think that is true. But I don't believe there is a scenario where Trump will abandon Israel diplomatically or in terms of resupply even though his loose mouth often says unhelpful things. The game is afoot and failure to win it is as good as losing it and I think Trump realizes that. At least I hope so.
I dont think its comparable to that. The Civil War like WWII was a total war fought against societies. The society had to recognize their total defeat. In this case Israel is trying very hard to take advantage of the fact that the vast majority of the Iranian people HATE the Mullah regime.
I heard an excellent idea on Dan Senor’s Call Me Back podcast today. His guest, a well-sourced military analyst with an Israeli TV network, suggested a throwback to World War II: Lend-Lease.
This would be a win-win for Trump and Netanyahu. Trump gets to keep the US out of the conflict while ending Iran’s nuclear threat and just maybe legitimately earning the Nobel Peace Prize he craves. Bibi gets access to — and training on — the B2 bomber for Israeli pilots and its MOAB payload needed to destroy Fordow. (Or maybe there are one or two USAF B2 pilots with dual citizenship who can fly the mission with the IAF.)
Two points - one is that any agreement with Iran should include a stop to funding all of its proxies. This is a must imo as while the nuclear threat is obviously paramount, we got here due to the proxy militias continuously hounding Israel. Second point is regarding the Straights of Hormuz - why couldn’t the US (or Israeli) navy keep that open? I have heard several people mention this threat of closing the straights, but no one is addressing any options to avert this.
I know that it’s fraught with danger and uncertainty, but I think that Israel has to try to keep going until the Mullahs are no longer in power. Anything less and we will be doing this again in no time.
Just think, though: Who could have imagined that October 7th would lead directly or indirectly to the neutering of Hezbollah (quite literally), regime change in Syria (already happened), and now possibly in Iran as well????
My take is that Israel will continue a few more days with the air campaign until their fighter jets need maintenance.
They will agree for a temporary ceasefire to talk. If Iran does not comply with all Israel’s conditions, they will start bombing again for a week or so. Until the Iranian regime gives in.
The Iranians will then probably only appear to give in but start to delay the discussion on the way.
Whatever happens, Israel has the upper hand and will dictate what needs to happen. The regime delays? The air campaign restarts.
I can think of Israel asking a full evacuation of the Fordow site, followed by unharmed Israeli access.
This will end with Israel destroying the site and its content completely. Probably after the safe removal of all the high grade Uranium. Similar scenarios for the other nuclear sites. End of the regimes nuclear plans.
I think you underestimate the cost to Israel of the war continuing. Even a few Iranian missiles a day, constantly sending people to bomb shelters and bringing the economy to a standstill, would make the situation difficult to sustain.
I unequivocally believe that the 85 million good people of Iran must be supported by Israel and the United States to rise up fearlessly against the Mullah’s evil regime and cause a complete destruction of the Regime! The Ayatollah is clearly having an emotional and physical breakdown in his tunnel of death! There should be NO WAY OUT FOR HIM AND HIS EVIL PROXIES WHEREVER THEY ARE! DEATH TO THE REGIME! Distrust any promises of a regime that can never act in good faith or be believed !!
Options 1 and 2 are not options. Israel is in such a commanding position it cannot possibly afford to let either the regime survive and ESPECIALLY not with that reactor intact. To do this would be truly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This is a once in a century opportunity to bring about serious and lasting change for the better. It could be done in a flash if the US took direct action. But if not Israel must persevere. No negotiations.
Depends on the White House. Trump, ultimately, has the final say here as a strategically isolated Israel is utterly reliant on US diplomatic support.
I can already see the new propaganda about continued Israeli bombing being a “genocide” in Iran.
I think that is true. But I don't believe there is a scenario where Trump will abandon Israel diplomatically or in terms of resupply even though his loose mouth often says unhelpful things. The game is afoot and failure to win it is as good as losing it and I think Trump realizes that. At least I hope so.
Agreed. What needs to happen is what Sherman did to the South. Make sure they know they are defeated. But, as Andrew states, will Trump allow that?
I dont think its comparable to that. The Civil War like WWII was a total war fought against societies. The society had to recognize their total defeat. In this case Israel is trying very hard to take advantage of the fact that the vast majority of the Iranian people HATE the Mullah regime.
True. But total defeat is the only thing the Arabs in general understand.
I heard an excellent idea on Dan Senor’s Call Me Back podcast today. His guest, a well-sourced military analyst with an Israeli TV network, suggested a throwback to World War II: Lend-Lease.
This would be a win-win for Trump and Netanyahu. Trump gets to keep the US out of the conflict while ending Iran’s nuclear threat and just maybe legitimately earning the Nobel Peace Prize he craves. Bibi gets access to — and training on — the B2 bomber for Israeli pilots and its MOAB payload needed to destroy Fordow. (Or maybe there are one or two USAF B2 pilots with dual citizenship who can fly the mission with the IAF.)
Here’s a link to that podcast segment:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000713035101
Two points - one is that any agreement with Iran should include a stop to funding all of its proxies. This is a must imo as while the nuclear threat is obviously paramount, we got here due to the proxy militias continuously hounding Israel. Second point is regarding the Straights of Hormuz - why couldn’t the US (or Israeli) navy keep that open? I have heard several people mention this threat of closing the straights, but no one is addressing any options to avert this.
I know that it’s fraught with danger and uncertainty, but I think that Israel has to try to keep going until the Mullahs are no longer in power. Anything less and we will be doing this again in no time.
Just think, though: Who could have imagined that October 7th would lead directly or indirectly to the neutering of Hezbollah (quite literally), regime change in Syria (already happened), and now possibly in Iran as well????
My take is that Israel will continue a few more days with the air campaign until their fighter jets need maintenance.
They will agree for a temporary ceasefire to talk. If Iran does not comply with all Israel’s conditions, they will start bombing again for a week or so. Until the Iranian regime gives in.
The Iranians will then probably only appear to give in but start to delay the discussion on the way.
Whatever happens, Israel has the upper hand and will dictate what needs to happen. The regime delays? The air campaign restarts.
I can think of Israel asking a full evacuation of the Fordow site, followed by unharmed Israeli access.
This will end with Israel destroying the site and its content completely. Probably after the safe removal of all the high grade Uranium. Similar scenarios for the other nuclear sites. End of the regimes nuclear plans.
And hopefully end of the regime.
It would be interesting if the enriched Iranian Uranium will end up in new Israeli nuclear weapons.
I think you underestimate the cost to Israel of the war continuing. Even a few Iranian missiles a day, constantly sending people to bomb shelters and bringing the economy to a standstill, would make the situation difficult to sustain.
You maybe want to weigh that against the cost to Israel of Iran having nuclear weapons. You're comparing the wrong things.
I unequivocally believe that the 85 million good people of Iran must be supported by Israel and the United States to rise up fearlessly against the Mullah’s evil regime and cause a complete destruction of the Regime! The Ayatollah is clearly having an emotional and physical breakdown in his tunnel of death! There should be NO WAY OUT FOR HIM AND HIS EVIL PROXIES WHEREVER THEY ARE! DEATH TO THE REGIME! Distrust any promises of a regime that can never act in good faith or be believed !!
Great helpful analysis. So much to unpack and consider. Shared to many.