Your outlook is very, very pessimistic..............and it is one that I share. When October 7th happened, I said at the time that any "end" that left Hamas in even the semblance of control in Gaza would be a huge loss for Israel, no matter what happened in between. In fact, as you noted, what has happened constitutes a "best case scenario" for Hamas. Yes, Sinwar is dead, as are many Palestinians, but that is of no concern to Hamas. It is STILL in in firm control of Gaza, and you can bet everything you own that as soon as Israel pulls back from the Gaza/Egypt border, tunnels will be re-dug and the smuggling will resume in short order.
I didn't trust Trump, and now my lack of trust is being vindicated.
Thank you, Andrew. Stark and bleak, but true. As a mutual friend of ours has said, "Israel’s tragedy has always been its unique ability to turn tactical military achievements into strategic disasters by focusing too much on the military tools and not enough on the political goals those tools are supposed to bring about. Instead of heeding Clemenceau’s observation that 'war is too important to be left to the generals', Israeli decision-makers have all too often outsourced to generals not only control of war, but also of peace." And again: "...if you happen to be reading these lines from a secure Western country and think that I’m being too morbid... please take a careful look at what’s happening in Ukraine and China. That relatively peaceful world order that we’ve all taken for granted... is fast fraying around the edges." Thankful for your analysis Andrew--it feels spot on, sadly.
Your comparison between the compassionate side of humanity and the cold nature of military analysis made me realise that there is a big conflict between the social side of my brain, the side that wants to be accepted and loved, and the rational side that knows how to differentiate right from wrong, and kindergarten morality (i.e. they killed more, therefore bad) from actual moral thinking.
Some of my closest friends and most of my family is on the left, so you can see how this keeps me up at night sometimes. I imagine this is how some germans must have felt prior to WWII, knowing that Hitler was on the wrong side of history.
Anyway, your blog might be one of my most valuable monthly investments. Thanks for that.
I agree with you on every point. I am still hopeful that overall this new administration will be a dramatic improvement over the current one but sure anyone that thought Trump would automatically let Israel go nuts wasn't thinking very clearly. What to do about Hamas long term is a serious issue. Surely there can be no return to the 10/6 mindset that Hamas can be contained by bribery.
A comment I posted yesterday on JPost website: The Shalit deal was a bad deal. The fact is that this is a worse deal. Yes it is terribly insensitive of me to say this but I advocate for no release of Palestinian prisoners except to the graveyard. Continuing to barter Jewish lives at an unequal rate continues to give advantage to a people whose goal is our destruction and annihilation. Of course families (and all the rest of us) pray and beg for the release of our hostages. Sadly this is not in the best interest of our people. Without a declaration of peaceful intent and recognition of our nation all this deal does is jeopardize the future of Israel.
I may not be a Kahanist but I’m as close as you can get a follower of Jabotinsky, Trumpledor, Brigadier Ord Wingate, even Misha Arens we Jews must to continue our survival and lives find a way to be allowed to exist alongside Dar Islam. Maybe only an intervention by Hashem I don’t know.
As said at the time, Trump would force a cooling of temperatures in the Middle East. It's definitely not a deal to Israel's liking but my suspicion is it only needs to hold for a couple of years. The world is about to get a lot more interesting if we're both right and the next domino is Ukraine. That'd put Taiwan on my timeline and mean that the intl community is going to find Israel buried under a heap of much larger worries.
I agree with your excellent and measured analysis. It's rotten socks for sure. I am dumbfounded Israel would give up the "corridors". The whole IDF effort turns into a major grass mowing, when sod removal was required.
Surprised Trump appears folding so soon, but agree with your assessment of his character and motivation. I stated during the campaign he'd be good for Israel in the short-term, didn't understand how short. Feckless is an operative word.
Perhaps all this pontification is premature. One can hope.
Andrew, assuming this deal passes, what are Israel's mitigation strategies? Tight control of the borders with Gaza? But then Egypt can open its side and let all the money and weapons through.
The mitigation is that the deal is reversible if Hamas don’t stick to it - and with patience, the hostages will be free (although I would be surprised if Hamas sticks to the deal and releases them all). The other mitigation will have to be intelligence saturation - an unblinking Israeli eye.
There never was or will be a real lasting political situation. There was never a way to replace Hamas. We were never going to be able to impose a solution. It is not going to work that way. The Palestinians need to come up with a solution. Deals brokered by third parties don't work. Until the Palestinians decide they want to go another way this is all we can achieve. We will see what the next stage will bring us.
I am so grateful for these reports, which I've been following for a few months and rely on as a refuge from the cautious reporting of major news outlets, which seem very wary of asking anyone uncomfortable questions. And they keep repeating the same casualty figures without any suggestion that they could be spurious. As for, will Hamas use a lull in active fighting to rebuild, rearm, and resume its campaign against Israel? If anyone in the major outlets is asking the question, even rhetorically, I haven't heard them. (You can stop reading here. The following is me, venting.)
I have difficulty imagining anything beyond temporary truces. Hamas's goal is to peel away support for Israel and it seems to have been quite successful. In the USA, younger voters have embraced the Palestinians, turning furiously hostile toward Israel, and in some cases, Jews, who will bear all the blame for any future violence. And formal US support for Israel could be diminished or disappear as Congress, and even perhaps the presidency, turn younger. Apart from the few peaceniks that Israel seems to always have, I imagine citizens there are generally resigned to fighting - which in my personal opinion, is about the right frame of mind. Palestinians could survive and even prosper in the Middle East alongside Israel, but they've chosen not to. I don't see how Israelis have that choice, given the seemingly inexpungable resistance to self-governing Jews living in what Muslims, and now much of the rest of the world, views as lands that are Muslim by right. Israel is far from perfect, but I think it has the right to survive as a self-governing homeland for Jews, and on top of that it is an actual democracy in a region where that form of government isn't strong. Orwell said, after his experience in Spain, Sometimes to survive you have to fight. I don't think he enjoyed writing or thinking that, but that in my view is Israel's situation.
Great analysis as usual Andrew and I cannot fault it. Your line “snatched defeat from the jaws of victory” has been quoted by a number of mainstream media outlets so far. On, Trump he seems determined to talk tough but then roll over to have his belly rubbed by every tinpot dictator willing to boost his ego. I note that he has been on social media singing the praises of Chairman Xi - and is talking about the Tic Tok ban being a bad thing. Also by the way I understand you have been recognised by Algemeiner as one of the top voices for Israel.. congratulations - it is well deserved.
I see you have been recognised by Algemeiner as one of the top voices for Israel.. incredibly well deserved .. if , and they should, have a Righteous Amongst Nations , for people who have stood up and fought/protected Jews after Oct 7th , then you would be my first for that award
Excellent analysis Andrew. I would have to agree with you.
Your outlook is very, very pessimistic..............and it is one that I share. When October 7th happened, I said at the time that any "end" that left Hamas in even the semblance of control in Gaza would be a huge loss for Israel, no matter what happened in between. In fact, as you noted, what has happened constitutes a "best case scenario" for Hamas. Yes, Sinwar is dead, as are many Palestinians, but that is of no concern to Hamas. It is STILL in in firm control of Gaza, and you can bet everything you own that as soon as Israel pulls back from the Gaza/Egypt border, tunnels will be re-dug and the smuggling will resume in short order.
I didn't trust Trump, and now my lack of trust is being vindicated.
Sadly spot on, as usual. I'm wondering if there's a way for Israel to turn the tide of the deadly information war? I worry for its people and future.
Any way to make this post shareable?
Hi, it should be shareable - it’s a free article with no paywall.
Thank you, Andrew. Stark and bleak, but true. As a mutual friend of ours has said, "Israel’s tragedy has always been its unique ability to turn tactical military achievements into strategic disasters by focusing too much on the military tools and not enough on the political goals those tools are supposed to bring about. Instead of heeding Clemenceau’s observation that 'war is too important to be left to the generals', Israeli decision-makers have all too often outsourced to generals not only control of war, but also of peace." And again: "...if you happen to be reading these lines from a secure Western country and think that I’m being too morbid... please take a careful look at what’s happening in Ukraine and China. That relatively peaceful world order that we’ve all taken for granted... is fast fraying around the edges." Thankful for your analysis Andrew--it feels spot on, sadly.
Another excellent and accessible analysis. Agree with you. The deadly information war is too far gone I fear.
Your comparison between the compassionate side of humanity and the cold nature of military analysis made me realise that there is a big conflict between the social side of my brain, the side that wants to be accepted and loved, and the rational side that knows how to differentiate right from wrong, and kindergarten morality (i.e. they killed more, therefore bad) from actual moral thinking.
Some of my closest friends and most of my family is on the left, so you can see how this keeps me up at night sometimes. I imagine this is how some germans must have felt prior to WWII, knowing that Hitler was on the wrong side of history.
Anyway, your blog might be one of my most valuable monthly investments. Thanks for that.
Kind words. Thank you very much.
I agree with you on every point. I am still hopeful that overall this new administration will be a dramatic improvement over the current one but sure anyone that thought Trump would automatically let Israel go nuts wasn't thinking very clearly. What to do about Hamas long term is a serious issue. Surely there can be no return to the 10/6 mindset that Hamas can be contained by bribery.
A comment I posted yesterday on JPost website: The Shalit deal was a bad deal. The fact is that this is a worse deal. Yes it is terribly insensitive of me to say this but I advocate for no release of Palestinian prisoners except to the graveyard. Continuing to barter Jewish lives at an unequal rate continues to give advantage to a people whose goal is our destruction and annihilation. Of course families (and all the rest of us) pray and beg for the release of our hostages. Sadly this is not in the best interest of our people. Without a declaration of peaceful intent and recognition of our nation all this deal does is jeopardize the future of Israel.
I may not be a Kahanist but I’m as close as you can get a follower of Jabotinsky, Trumpledor, Brigadier Ord Wingate, even Misha Arens we Jews must to continue our survival and lives find a way to be allowed to exist alongside Dar Islam. Maybe only an intervention by Hashem I don’t know.
Hashem it is.
As said at the time, Trump would force a cooling of temperatures in the Middle East. It's definitely not a deal to Israel's liking but my suspicion is it only needs to hold for a couple of years. The world is about to get a lot more interesting if we're both right and the next domino is Ukraine. That'd put Taiwan on my timeline and mean that the intl community is going to find Israel buried under a heap of much larger worries.
I agree with your excellent and measured analysis. It's rotten socks for sure. I am dumbfounded Israel would give up the "corridors". The whole IDF effort turns into a major grass mowing, when sod removal was required.
Surprised Trump appears folding so soon, but agree with your assessment of his character and motivation. I stated during the campaign he'd be good for Israel in the short-term, didn't understand how short. Feckless is an operative word.
Perhaps all this pontification is premature. One can hope.
Ukraine can look forward to little. China is happy, planning its takeover of Taiwan.
Andrew, assuming this deal passes, what are Israel's mitigation strategies? Tight control of the borders with Gaza? But then Egypt can open its side and let all the money and weapons through.
The mitigation is that the deal is reversible if Hamas don’t stick to it - and with patience, the hostages will be free (although I would be surprised if Hamas sticks to the deal and releases them all). The other mitigation will have to be intelligence saturation - an unblinking Israeli eye.
There never was or will be a real lasting political situation. There was never a way to replace Hamas. We were never going to be able to impose a solution. It is not going to work that way. The Palestinians need to come up with a solution. Deals brokered by third parties don't work. Until the Palestinians decide they want to go another way this is all we can achieve. We will see what the next stage will bring us.
I am so grateful for these reports, which I've been following for a few months and rely on as a refuge from the cautious reporting of major news outlets, which seem very wary of asking anyone uncomfortable questions. And they keep repeating the same casualty figures without any suggestion that they could be spurious. As for, will Hamas use a lull in active fighting to rebuild, rearm, and resume its campaign against Israel? If anyone in the major outlets is asking the question, even rhetorically, I haven't heard them. (You can stop reading here. The following is me, venting.)
I have difficulty imagining anything beyond temporary truces. Hamas's goal is to peel away support for Israel and it seems to have been quite successful. In the USA, younger voters have embraced the Palestinians, turning furiously hostile toward Israel, and in some cases, Jews, who will bear all the blame for any future violence. And formal US support for Israel could be diminished or disappear as Congress, and even perhaps the presidency, turn younger. Apart from the few peaceniks that Israel seems to always have, I imagine citizens there are generally resigned to fighting - which in my personal opinion, is about the right frame of mind. Palestinians could survive and even prosper in the Middle East alongside Israel, but they've chosen not to. I don't see how Israelis have that choice, given the seemingly inexpungable resistance to self-governing Jews living in what Muslims, and now much of the rest of the world, views as lands that are Muslim by right. Israel is far from perfect, but I think it has the right to survive as a self-governing homeland for Jews, and on top of that it is an actual democracy in a region where that form of government isn't strong. Orwell said, after his experience in Spain, Sometimes to survive you have to fight. I don't think he enjoyed writing or thinking that, but that in my view is Israel's situation.
But a "win" for the Palestinians would have been a defeat of Hamas.
Great analysis as usual Andrew and I cannot fault it. Your line “snatched defeat from the jaws of victory” has been quoted by a number of mainstream media outlets so far. On, Trump he seems determined to talk tough but then roll over to have his belly rubbed by every tinpot dictator willing to boost his ego. I note that he has been on social media singing the praises of Chairman Xi - and is talking about the Tic Tok ban being a bad thing. Also by the way I understand you have been recognised by Algemeiner as one of the top voices for Israel.. congratulations - it is well deserved.
I see you have been recognised by Algemeiner as one of the top voices for Israel.. incredibly well deserved .. if , and they should, have a Righteous Amongst Nations , for people who have stood up and fought/protected Jews after Oct 7th , then you would be my first for that award