I can't disagree with any of this. This is but a pause, because this war can only end one of two ways: Either Israel ceases to exist (which, if the Mullahs do finally develop a nuke, they will do their best to make happen), or the Mullahs are deposed. That's it. This isn't the Cold War, and I don't think that enough people realize that.
Excellent analysis. For a strategic victory regime change was necessary which has not been achieved = as yet. It may come. But even if that occurs it seems unlikely that Iran will become a stable democracy. It doesn't have the history and is too diverse across a number of dimensions. For stability it will probably need authoritarian rule of some kind, hopefully one compatible with Israeli and Western interests.
Andrew, as always thanks for your clear and impartial analysis. My only hope is that this moment of strength for Israel becomes an opportunity to put the tragic history of this conflict behind us. To work for a permanent solution for the Palestinians and the political integration of Israel into the Middle East. I fear that without that, as you wrote, the processes that led up to these wars with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran will just repeat.
As usual a great analysis. I think in the end while Trump's future actions and or support are hard to predict we can definitely predict what a Democratic administration would do because we are observing it in Europe. Call for de-escalation, refuse to let Israel prevail, work through the execrable United Nazis. Ultimately the number one lesson that Israel has learned is that it cannot rely on ANYONE for weapons or defense. The US cannot be given a veto. From a strategic standpoint Israel has made it clear once again as in the olden times that it will not be afraid to use massive force and that it will not be held back by the "international community" when acting to protect its people. That deterrence was lost decades ago and has been recovered. That is a lot. Iran remains a menace as do the Palestinians and as does the UN. But less dangerous than they were. Israel must now work closely with Trump so as to ensure the Iranian economy does not get sanction relief.
I am skeptical that the dispersion of uranium assets was as discrete as you write. If OSINT can see it, so did the Israelis in real-time and likely from eyes on the ground, as you observed about their Persian speakers descended from the Farhud. Now, does IDF know where the new nests are? Thoughts?
Great analysis.. but hardly what Israel was looking for. Israel needed to make sure all Iranian missiles launchers were destroyed (or as close as able) and annihilate its ability to produce more missiles. Without these measures, who really won the war?
Gaza protests were about moving the US away from support for Israel. "Ceasefire" was a fig leaf. It looks to me like this is working. My anti-Israel, pro-Russia friend declares that soon all the Jews will abandon Israel and move elsewhere. I think everyday Israelis are more tenacious and that's bull, but it's not like peace and brotherhood are just over the horizon.
I can't disagree with any of this. This is but a pause, because this war can only end one of two ways: Either Israel ceases to exist (which, if the Mullahs do finally develop a nuke, they will do their best to make happen), or the Mullahs are deposed. That's it. This isn't the Cold War, and I don't think that enough people realize that.
Israël will likely double down on covert operations.
Israel will also increase their effort to become much more independent of US military suppliers. That path was already clear since Oct 7.
As you suggested, there may be Israeli strikes on Iranian targets from time to time.
But it may take at least several months before Israel has processed all new intelligence and a new strategy is developed.
"Israel will also increase their effort to become much more independent on US military suppliers. That path was already clear since Oct 7."
I assume you meant "much more independent OF US military suppliers". In which case, I agree completely.
Thanks, I corrected it. Usually I double check what I write but missed this one.
Excellent analysis. For a strategic victory regime change was necessary which has not been achieved = as yet. It may come. But even if that occurs it seems unlikely that Iran will become a stable democracy. It doesn't have the history and is too diverse across a number of dimensions. For stability it will probably need authoritarian rule of some kind, hopefully one compatible with Israeli and Western interests.
Your insights have been very helpful to me, stuck in the firing line. Thank you, as ever.
The game is not over. The shadow war has just begun.
Andrew, as always thanks for your clear and impartial analysis. My only hope is that this moment of strength for Israel becomes an opportunity to put the tragic history of this conflict behind us. To work for a permanent solution for the Palestinians and the political integration of Israel into the Middle East. I fear that without that, as you wrote, the processes that led up to these wars with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran will just repeat.
As usual a great analysis. I think in the end while Trump's future actions and or support are hard to predict we can definitely predict what a Democratic administration would do because we are observing it in Europe. Call for de-escalation, refuse to let Israel prevail, work through the execrable United Nazis. Ultimately the number one lesson that Israel has learned is that it cannot rely on ANYONE for weapons or defense. The US cannot be given a veto. From a strategic standpoint Israel has made it clear once again as in the olden times that it will not be afraid to use massive force and that it will not be held back by the "international community" when acting to protect its people. That deterrence was lost decades ago and has been recovered. That is a lot. Iran remains a menace as do the Palestinians and as does the UN. But less dangerous than they were. Israel must now work closely with Trump so as to ensure the Iranian economy does not get sanction relief.
Your analysis is spot on.
I am skeptical that the dispersion of uranium assets was as discrete as you write. If OSINT can see it, so did the Israelis in real-time and likely from eyes on the ground, as you observed about their Persian speakers descended from the Farhud. Now, does IDF know where the new nests are? Thoughts?
Just sent you a few notes. OSINT never ends. But things may be worse.
Thank you for your excellent, analytical & detailed explanations. What will happen about the missing Uranium?
Great analysis.. but hardly what Israel was looking for. Israel needed to make sure all Iranian missiles launchers were destroyed (or as close as able) and annihilate its ability to produce more missiles. Without these measures, who really won the war?
Shadow war, yes, no doubt. A deranged obscene regime retains power, sudden removal, that vacuum, what fills it? So much damage.
Another good analysis, needed, thankyou.
Surely we can do better than “The 12 Day War”! Suggestions?
Gaza protests were about moving the US away from support for Israel. "Ceasefire" was a fig leaf. It looks to me like this is working. My anti-Israel, pro-Russia friend declares that soon all the Jews will abandon Israel and move elsewhere. I think everyday Israelis are more tenacious and that's bull, but it's not like peace and brotherhood are just over the horizon.