When the Lion Roars: What to Watch in the First 72 Hours
A calm field guide to the fog of war—spotting disinformation, tracking Iran’s response, and the three signals that real regime change is in motion.
Good morning, especially to those in the US who will read this later after hearing the news: Israel and US forces have finally struck the Iranian regime. After weeks of giving the Mullahs the chance to take an exit ramp and the Mullahs refusing to do so, Washington and Jerusalem have pressed the button on full-scale regime change by launching military operations. The aim is to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, defeat the IRGC, and create the conditions for the people of Iran to seize back control.
This piece will not be a live commentary on events, as things will develop too quickly and it will become outdated before I even press “send”. This piece is about the things to look out for over the coming hours and days.
Similar to last summer’s Operation Rising Lion, Operation Lion’s Roar initiated with coordinated cyberattacks on Iran to disrupt command and control. Unverified videos of missiles crossing Iraqi airspace en route to Iran have been circulated. This again mirrors the pattern of the 12 Day War. Social media feeds are showing strikes across Iran, including at Ayatollah Khamenei’s headquarters (confirmed by Iran International). It is an attack by air and sea.
The first thing to watch out for is disinformation. The internet is already flooded with both real and fake videos, photos, and images taken from other events. Popular Open Source Intelligence sites will try to increase their followers and revenue, often rushing to report every rumour as fact. Be very cautious before sharing anything: I was nearly fooled this morning. It is very easy to fall into this trap. It will be especially tempting to share images that give you a dopamine hit of shock and outrage, or that support your confirmation bias, because they are what you want to see. Pause, verify, and only then share!
The next thing to watch for is the Iranian response. At the time of writing, missile and drone launches have been sporadic and nowhere close to the waves of hundreds we saw during the 12 Day War. This shows how degraded the regime’s capabilities are. Command and control, air defence, and missile capabilities will have been prioritised targets for Israel and the US in early strikes. Once these Iranian capabilities are dismantled, Israeli and American aircraft will have complete freedom to strike whatever target they choose.
The IRGC has announced that all response options are now on the table. So what are these options? They are already attempting missile and drone launches: some reports suggest these are not only against Israel, but against US bases in the region, like Al Udeid airbase or the naval base in Bahrain. Allies have spent weeks preparing these locations for exactly such an attack, but the Middle East is a large area, and it will be challenging to defend everywhere. Expect Iran to lash out across the Gulf as well as at Israel, and it will probably score some hits.
Another response may come from what remains of Iran’s proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. Israel has spent weeks weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities, despite their reinforcement by IRGC commanders. They are already degraded, and Israel will have responses and defences prepared.
The Shiite Iraqi militias have been deterred by American presence since 7th October and have not engaged significantly at any point. However, they are numerous and capable, so the key question will be how well deterrence holds when the regime’s survival is truly at risk for the first time.
The Houthis in Yemen received a heavy blow last year from American attacks and, as far as we know, have minimal means to respond in a meaningful or decisive way. They are likely to be a nuisance, at best.
Regime change is clearly the plan. This makes it likely that the regime will pull every lever at its disposal to retaliate. We might see activation of international subversion networks, such as domestic terror attack attempts in Western countries. Our security services will be on high alert.
There is also a fear that Iran will try to use chemical or biological weapons. This is a slender risk, but a risk nonetheless. The question is the mechanism of delivery, which is where the regime will struggle, having minimal assets capable of deploying such weapons, and those assets will be at the top of the target strike list.
The regime’s primary aim will be survival and to cling to power by whatever means they can. Israeli and American ammunition supplies are finite. They will need to halt at some point, so the key question underpinning everything is: can regime change be achieved with the time and ammunition available?
As a reminder, we should focus on three key aspects:
Firstly, the people’s uprising. US and Israeli agencies will have spent weeks providing anti-regime groups with support and tools to organise and take action. We have witnessed the Iranian people’s determination in this year’s uprisings. They have sacrificed a great deal, and their resolve is undeniable: they simply need the means to overcome murderous regime security forces and overthrow the Mullahs and IRGC. This is not an easy task, and the Iranian people are likely to have to sacrifice more lives.
Security forces are the second factor. The aim must be to eliminate them beyond the point where they can respond meaningfully, or to create conditions where we see units refusing to fight or switching sides. We will soon see exactly how fanatical they are. Will the US and Israel have enough bombs to deter or destroy them, or will they retain elements of power and control?
The third and final factor to look for is a clear psychological shock, such as a key leader like Khamenei being killed, a major figure publicly deserting, or these individuals fleeing the country. Think of Assad fleeing to Russia as his regime collapsed. Reports suggest that many senior Iranian leaders have already been killed, but we are not yet at the level of shock needed to prompt the final fall of the regime.
For now, we do not know which way this will go: will the regime survive as an even more wounded beast, or will this mark the end of the Mullahs’ despotic rule? I have not addressed the ‘what next’ here and will discuss this in a future post. Rather than offering breathless commentary, I aim to continue providing you with sober analysis based on facts, risks, and certainties.
And remember – think before you share!
Free Iran.
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