Excellent analysis. Just signed up. US Navy veteran here and I appreciate non Jewish military experts like you supporting Israel and the Jews. The fall of the regime will take time. The IDF can systemically wear down the IRGC and infrastructure, and Israel will need to expect more Israeli civilian causalties. The key here is Trump doesn't pressure Israel to stop in a week because the fake base doesn't want "endless wars" or "send their kids to war"and other BS memes.
Thank you Andrew. You seem to have covered all possibilities. A forced collapse of the current repressive regime will create a power void that could easily create a power grab that would fall into extremist hands. “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.” My hope for Israel, the Iranian people and the Middle East is for a relatively smooth transition of power. That would be a “nes” or miracle. I digress. If any force on earth can destroy the Fordow nuclear plant it’s Israel’s special ops in conjunction with intelligence from Mossad. I love the IDF and Israel. Kudos to Netanyahu, Israel Katz and the other Ministers of Israel. They have unequalled balls and brains. Am Yisrael Chai
Thanks for this. The Day After scenarios are all pretty grim, but I suppose they are better then continued nuclear empowerment of the current regime. Thank you for this analysis... surely won't find that in any of the big name mainstream publications.
The collapse of the Iron Curtain was once unthinkable. The dissolution of the USSR was once unthinkable. The unthinkable does happen if conditions are ripe for it. There are serious risks in instability but in this case, the Mullah regime is such a world menace that it is hard to really imagine a future regime being worse. In any event the job must be done and I wish Trump would stop calling for a return to negotiations as that might signal to the Iranian people that it's not sage to rise up.
Thank you, Andrew. Your analysis is excellent, comprehensive, and well thought out. We shall have to watch, pray, and seek Hashem's will and guidance in the days ahead. Am Israel Chai.
As usual, excellent and sobering analysis. The actions of IDF / Mossad / ISA so far are reminiscent of Det. A in East Germany and their potential mission. I am not an optimist however, Hoping that enough infrastructure is already in Iran to take out Fodrow, and perhaps assist, or have a plan for the day after.
Inciteful as always and amazingly timely with the Iranian Foreign Minister's tweet today that seems to make a veiled offer to talk. Fingers and toes crossed.
This was a great read. Thank you for the insights.
Do you have the sense at this point that Israel is capable of establishing sufficient air supremacy around Fordow to hold back the Iranian army to a sufficient degree?
All of the open source attention out there seems to focus on air defenses, retaliatory assets, and nuclear sites. Haven’t seen anything really on location, movement or engagement of Iranian ground forces throughout the last few days. Best I know is that it’s a sizable force generally.
One would assume that sufficiently degrading air defenses around Tehran (or Fordow) to allow for more bombing is one thing, but holding back / suppressing / overcoming an entrenched army from the air whilst operating so far from home is another matter entirely. Beyond my scope of understanding.
Just feels like there’s maybe an element of racing against time here. Unless the army itself breaks or a MOP enters the picture, as you point out.
No doubt. At least it would seem everywhere it counts.
I’m more getting at the practical issue of the amount of time it takes to run home and reload a jet’s arsenal in the middle of a firefight - one where the only means of fighting the advancing / entrenching army is air power and home is a very long way away.
It’s surely crossed the IRGC’s minds that what’s described above is a possibility. They’ll presumably have started thinking about it before yesterday. I just haven’t seen any analysis of troop numbers and conditions on the ground. I would think the element of surprise is gone, at least partially here.
Main point is it’s a loooong way back to Israel (and air to ground missile inventory isn’t infinite).
Even if they could get permission to use closer US bases on the Arabian peninsula - a mighty big “if” given the host countries, the politics of the conflict, and the fact that America is purposefully sitting this out so those bases don’t get hit - it’s still just a slow process by its nature.
As far as I know, Israel doesn’t have an AC-130 or even the A-10 for the kind of long-loitering, paced, and sustained close air support mission that I would *think* you’d want to in a fight a huge number of dispersed troops and artillery hiding up in the mountains (presumably with more on the way).
In the crudest most over-generalized terms, it’s ~300 jets vs 600,000 troops or something like that. Is that a winning formula in a race against time?
In short, without direct American support, does Israel’s ability to achieve air superiority everywhere necessarily translate into air supremacy everywhere - at least for this kind of objective of pushing back a whole army back long enough to hit a target like Fordow on the ground?
This just seems like one of those issues where it’s very easy for an ignorant civilian like me to misunderstand basics about war fighting in the mountains.
Commandos don't have to get back to Israel. They merely need to be helicoptered out to a naval vessel waiting in the Persian Gulf. We will see what happens. Too bad Trump won't just go for it.
This was a great analysis. There are many paths; not all of them good but certainly cause for optimism. My question is, assuming a new non-terrorist Middle East is emerging. What is future for Qatar? They are the 2nd pillar of Jihadism.
You haven't mentioned one more move. Such a facility must consume a huge amount of energy, have complex and extensive logistics. There are vulnerabilities.
In addition, you noted that Iran's main energy facilities were not damaged. The gas processing area and main ports. Perhaps this was left in case the option of regime change is impossible. If it is not possible to crush the regime, you can "turn off the lights". Israel is now hitting the regime's sore spots, but it can hit the country's sore spots.
One point I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere is the fact that even if Iran builds a missile underground, it can’t be fired from deep in the earth. It needs to be brought at least near to the surface to be fired and as soon as it is, Israel will pound it to dust.
Excellent analysis. Just signed up. US Navy veteran here and I appreciate non Jewish military experts like you supporting Israel and the Jews. The fall of the regime will take time. The IDF can systemically wear down the IRGC and infrastructure, and Israel will need to expect more Israeli civilian causalties. The key here is Trump doesn't pressure Israel to stop in a week because the fake base doesn't want "endless wars" or "send their kids to war"and other BS memes.
I really do hope that Ayatollah Khameini is forced to flee abroad.
Thank you Andrew. You seem to have covered all possibilities. A forced collapse of the current repressive regime will create a power void that could easily create a power grab that would fall into extremist hands. “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.” My hope for Israel, the Iranian people and the Middle East is for a relatively smooth transition of power. That would be a “nes” or miracle. I digress. If any force on earth can destroy the Fordow nuclear plant it’s Israel’s special ops in conjunction with intelligence from Mossad. I love the IDF and Israel. Kudos to Netanyahu, Israel Katz and the other Ministers of Israel. They have unequalled balls and brains. Am Yisrael Chai
In this case the country is already in extremist hands. The devil we know is worse or certainly no worse than anything that could follow.
Not. Necessarily.. did you read the article?
Yes. I disagree that anything could possibly be worse.
Each analysis you submit, think that is his best, here is another. A lot of work, well presented accessible to all, excellent
Its that 'vacuum' that alarms.
Thanks for this. The Day After scenarios are all pretty grim, but I suppose they are better then continued nuclear empowerment of the current regime. Thank you for this analysis... surely won't find that in any of the big name mainstream publications.
The collapse of the Iron Curtain was once unthinkable. The dissolution of the USSR was once unthinkable. The unthinkable does happen if conditions are ripe for it. There are serious risks in instability but in this case, the Mullah regime is such a world menace that it is hard to really imagine a future regime being worse. In any event the job must be done and I wish Trump would stop calling for a return to negotiations as that might signal to the Iranian people that it's not sage to rise up.
Thank you, Andrew. Your analysis is excellent, comprehensive, and well thought out. We shall have to watch, pray, and seek Hashem's will and guidance in the days ahead. Am Israel Chai.
As usual, excellent and sobering analysis. The actions of IDF / Mossad / ISA so far are reminiscent of Det. A in East Germany and their potential mission. I am not an optimist however, Hoping that enough infrastructure is already in Iran to take out Fodrow, and perhaps assist, or have a plan for the day after.
Hope you’re right 💪
Inciteful as always and amazingly timely with the Iranian Foreign Minister's tweet today that seems to make a veiled offer to talk. Fingers and toes crossed.
The Russian S-300 SAM system is utterly worthless.
This was a great read. Thank you for the insights.
Do you have the sense at this point that Israel is capable of establishing sufficient air supremacy around Fordow to hold back the Iranian army to a sufficient degree?
All of the open source attention out there seems to focus on air defenses, retaliatory assets, and nuclear sites. Haven’t seen anything really on location, movement or engagement of Iranian ground forces throughout the last few days. Best I know is that it’s a sizable force generally.
One would assume that sufficiently degrading air defenses around Tehran (or Fordow) to allow for more bombing is one thing, but holding back / suppressing / overcoming an entrenched army from the air whilst operating so far from home is another matter entirely. Beyond my scope of understanding.
Just feels like there’s maybe an element of racing against time here. Unless the army itself breaks or a MOP enters the picture, as you point out.
Thank you, sir!
It appears Israel has complete control of Iranian air space.
No doubt. At least it would seem everywhere it counts.
I’m more getting at the practical issue of the amount of time it takes to run home and reload a jet’s arsenal in the middle of a firefight - one where the only means of fighting the advancing / entrenching army is air power and home is a very long way away.
It’s surely crossed the IRGC’s minds that what’s described above is a possibility. They’ll presumably have started thinking about it before yesterday. I just haven’t seen any analysis of troop numbers and conditions on the ground. I would think the element of surprise is gone, at least partially here.
Main point is it’s a loooong way back to Israel (and air to ground missile inventory isn’t infinite).
Even if they could get permission to use closer US bases on the Arabian peninsula - a mighty big “if” given the host countries, the politics of the conflict, and the fact that America is purposefully sitting this out so those bases don’t get hit - it’s still just a slow process by its nature.
As far as I know, Israel doesn’t have an AC-130 or even the A-10 for the kind of long-loitering, paced, and sustained close air support mission that I would *think* you’d want to in a fight a huge number of dispersed troops and artillery hiding up in the mountains (presumably with more on the way).
In the crudest most over-generalized terms, it’s ~300 jets vs 600,000 troops or something like that. Is that a winning formula in a race against time?
In short, without direct American support, does Israel’s ability to achieve air superiority everywhere necessarily translate into air supremacy everywhere - at least for this kind of objective of pushing back a whole army back long enough to hit a target like Fordow on the ground?
This just seems like one of those issues where it’s very easy for an ignorant civilian like me to misunderstand basics about war fighting in the mountains.
Commandos don't have to get back to Israel. They merely need to be helicoptered out to a naval vessel waiting in the Persian Gulf. We will see what happens. Too bad Trump won't just go for it.
It would be easier to drop a MOP or two and head home for lunch. Even a dumb civilian like me can see that.
Trump wants that Nobel Peace Prize though. No other explanation I can see.
Well he wouldn't get one if he brought about the rapture. In any event the best way to bring peace is to end an ongoing threat.
This was a great analysis. There are many paths; not all of them good but certainly cause for optimism. My question is, assuming a new non-terrorist Middle East is emerging. What is future for Qatar? They are the 2nd pillar of Jihadism.
Thank you Andrew for your continued clear headed analysis.
You haven't mentioned one more move. Such a facility must consume a huge amount of energy, have complex and extensive logistics. There are vulnerabilities.
In addition, you noted that Iran's main energy facilities were not damaged. The gas processing area and main ports. Perhaps this was left in case the option of regime change is impossible. If it is not possible to crush the regime, you can "turn off the lights". Israel is now hitting the regime's sore spots, but it can hit the country's sore spots.
One point I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere is the fact that even if Iran builds a missile underground, it can’t be fired from deep in the earth. It needs to be brought at least near to the surface to be fired and as soon as it is, Israel will pound it to dust.