At the time of writing, we have seen a week of unprecedented evolution in Israel’s ongoing war against the Iranian regime, its proxies, and its allies.
On 12th September, the IDF declared the Hamas brigades in Rafah defeated. This was in the context of weeks of briefing and counter-briefing by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. When I met them both in Israel two weeks ago, Netanyahu was keen to emphasis the need to retain the Philadelphi Corridor (the Gazan border with Egypt) and finish the job in Gaza. Gallant wished for a ceasefire in Gaza followed by operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon to restore 60,000 displaced Israelis to their home in the North.
Earlier this month, Israel undertook an increased operational tempo in Judea and Samaria/West Bank and in the Jordan Valley. It is believed that these operations were in response to Iranian attempts to surge weapons and Improvised Explosive Device (IED) components into Israel, which possibly included the misfiring attempted suicide attack in Tel Aviv in August. It appears that the IDF was heading off a Third Intifada.
Before examining Israeli strategy, it is critical to examine Iran’s. The last 11 months of conflict have seen the fruits of their ‘ring of fire’ of proxies and allies around Israel. Their goal is to destroy Israel, as the first stage in a plan to achieve regional hegemony. They aim to do this by severing Israel from their allies in the USA and the Gulf, and then defeating them by coordinated overwhelming attacks by their proxies, and facilitating violent uprisings from Palestinian and other neighbouring Arab populations.
After Hamas attacked on 7th October, Hezbollah in Lebanon opened fire with over 9,000 rockets to date, displacing the population of Northern Israel. The Syrian weapon-smuggling route continues. Unrest has been seen in Judea and Samaria/West Bank. The Houthis in Yemen have disrupted shipping in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea headed to the Suez Canal, and have fired missiles and drones at Israel itself. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, now to all intents and purposes an Iranian proxy state, have been relatively quiet due to continued NATO presence in the country and an Iranian desire to avoid escalation with the West.
A comprehensive information operations campaign has stoked animosity towards Israel in the West. This campaign of disinformation about Israeli conduct in Gaza has had a clear political impact in the USA, with protests putting pressure on the US President in key states in an election year.