The world under Trump

What does his election mean for chances of world peace?

The world is in a curious state of anticipation of a second Trump presidency. Already, his supporters and taking credit for the ceasefire in Lebanon, and we can see states moving their pieces into position in advance of a how they think the world’s only superpower will behave now that “they can hear the tyres pulling into the driveway and they know Daddy’s home”. What can the world expect? This article is my attempt at a little crystal ball-gazing for the world’s three main malevolent actors at present: Iran, Russia and China.

Iran has until January. The outcome for Iran is one of two divergent paths. The first path is if Iran gets a viable nuclear weapon into play before the inauguration. If this happens, the Middle East becomes a flipped table. Iran would have nothing to lose and all to win. The second and more likely path is that Iran does not get to a nuclear weapon in time. Trump will assume office and tell Iran to either accept a very unfavourable peace deal, or Trump will tell Israel to delete Iran's petrochemical capability and maybe even their nuclear facilities as well. Iran broadly ceases to exist as we know it and becomes a new flavour of Afghan-style failed state.

For Israel, this second outcome means for the next decade they are effectively safe, and with a little diplomacy they can enshrine that safety for decades, plural. A bloc made up of Israel, KSA and UAE would effectively become the de-facto prime power in the region and one that nobody would be able to contest seriously for a long time.

For Bibi specifically, if he gets to January intact, he gets to "win" Palestine, Lebanon and probably Iran. He gets to cement his legacy and goes out on a high note. I cannot see past what happens after that. The Knesset could go several different directions once the external pressure imposed by Iran is gone. Peace does funny things to leaderships.

Hamas is militarily dead and the “what next?” in Gaza continues to elude Israel, who seem intent on seizing a quagmire from the mouth of a victory that was achieved months ago. Hezbollah in Lebanon might survive, but it may have to do a Sinn Fein-style transformation where it gets out of active militancy and moves fully into political work within Lebanon. In some senses, this might play to Hezbollah's benefit long term. The Lebanese political system is so deeply screwed that coherent leadership, even from Hezbollah, is some degree of improvement.

Therefore if Hezbollah is out of the game, and it looks like Iran won't be able to race to a viable and launchable weapon, this all means that Iran now knows the writing is on the wall. I would expect Iran to sue for peace sooner rather than later.

Iraq is in flux, so it is too soon to make any predictions there, and Yemen will rumble on dependent on their Iranian masters for strategic direction. Afghanistan is cemented as the Taliban's home for the foreseeable future, and the Shia "bloc" is going to exist. However, it is unlikely to represent a security threat at least for the duration of Trump's term and the term after that. It is hard to predict further developments, however.