The Death of Hezbollah

What next?

For eleven months, following 8th October 2024, Israel has been under sustained fire from Hezbollah rockets. As the war in Gaza to dismantle Hamas has ground on, over 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from communities in northern Israel, forced to live in hotels and with family elsewhere. An attempt to attack Tel Aviv in July saw a huge aerial bombardment from the IDF, prompting these displaced northern communities to ask why an Israeli response to their displacement was taking so long.

Now we know.

Aside from the fact that a hit on military or intelligence installations in Tel Aviv would have been strategically disastrous, requiring a preemptive response, Israel was necessarily been biding its time before escalation. As I reported from meetings in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv earlier this month, there has not been unity on strategy at the top of Israel’s government. Netanyahu directed that Hamas be dealt with first; Gallant wished to respond to Hezbollah before conducting operations in Gaza. Netanyahu wished to finish operations in Gaza before turning North; Gallant wanted a ceasefire in Gaza and to take the fight to Hezbollah instead.

The last two weeks show us that Israel opted for a compromise between these two positions. Operations in Gaza continue with four manoeuvre brigades holding the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors, the movement controls along Gaza’s waistband and southern border. Netanyahu has his wish for no ceasefire and to retain control of the border with Egypt. Gallant has his wish for operations in Lebanon to restore security to Israel’s northern border. Everyone is a winner—expect Hezbollah and Hamas.