Should Israel agree to a ceasefire in Gaza?
Or not? It is a quagmire.
The signs have all been there for the last two weeks. An increase in US political rhetoric. A significant uplift in Hamas-generated atrocity footage from Gaza. Prolonged shrieking from the usual pro-Hamas social media propaganda accounts. Veiled Iranian and Hezbollah threats.
It must be Gaza ceasefire talk time, once again.
There is a desperation to placate a potentially election-winning minority of Democrat voters in critical swing states in a presidential election. As a result, over the last fortnight, the USA has found its narrative aligned with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. Ignore crass and polarising contributions from the UK’s lackwit Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government and their despicable anti-Israel agenda. The UK is a total sideshow in this matter. What matters is the USA, and the USA alone.
In fairness, it has been an heroic concerted effort by the Americans to both de-escalate in Gaza and avoid escalation from Iran. They have thrown two carrier groups and a submarine at the Middle East to deter Iran, and they have significantly upped diplomatic pressure on Israel. This week, Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s envoy to the Middle East, said, regarding a ceasefire: “[there are]…no more valid excuses from any party for any further delay.”
At least the American perspective is clear. From both Israel’s and Hamas’ perspectives, valid excuses abound. During the last ceasefire talks, I wrote:
“The Wall Street Journal reports that Sinwar “is in no hurry to end the war, believing that it is drawing Israel into a quagmire that is turning the country into an international pariah while reviving the Palestinian national cause”. This has been the core of Hamas’ strategy throughout,”
There is no suggestion to me that this has changed. Hamas’ leadership are certainly feeling the pressure. As the tunnels are destroyed and become less and less safe, they are being forced to the surface and hiding instead in schools and humanitarian zones. This is how Deif was found and killed. However, they are not yet feeling enough jeopardy in losing total control of Gaza. The IDF, whilst successful so far, are only halfway through a long operation. Such lengthy operations come with political, international, domestic and economic pressures that Israel is not guaranteed to be able to ride out. Hamas will still have a degree of confidence that they can endure Operation Swords of Iron and retain power in Gaza once it is over. Israel has the watches, but Hamas will feel they have the time.
I explained Hamas' strategy in detail in this article, and it remains the same: