There is much to be written about the strategic implications of Sinwar’s death. I’ve given my own hasty hot take on X, but all things considered I am loathe to either trust or give supposedly-decisive commentary before the dust has settled from tank rounds in Khan Younis.
I will share some thoughts in due course, once we have more information and once the situation has matured. In this post, I am going to discuss “the other war”: the information war.
For a student of this stuff, it has been a bonanza twelve months. I have written the following posts about it previously, if you would care for a deep dive into the psychology of how this all works in the brain, or on how super-spreader accounts use bots to manipulate social media algorithms.
This post examines the sheer scale of the role of bots in pushing the disinformation narrative (I suspect the numbers will shock you):
This one examines how “superspreaders” are amplified by fake and bot accounts (it is truly remarkable how many fake followers these accounts have):
This one explains the psychology exploited by malign actors and discusses why human beings are so psychologically susceptible to it:
And finally, this post examines Soviet-backed pro-Palestinian subversion in Western societies:
If you “ain’t reading all that”, as a broad context, here is the usual pattern:
A newsworthy event happens >
There is a co-ordinated “influencer” messaging push, supported by bot/fake account swarms, to try and dominate the narrative and give the worst possible spin towards Israel >
Al Jazeera and other hostile state media amplify the narrative >
Mainstream media run the story as true.
Think of the hostage rescue on 8th June, 2024. Before the last IDF rescue helicopter was wheels-up to carry the hostages home, the narrative was already racing around the world that the IDF had indiscriminately slaughtered hundreds of civilians as part of the rescue effort. Of course, this is untrue, as I’ve detailed here:
So, what are we seeing at the moment? A lot of bad takes generally, but there are some very obvious thematic narratives being pushed. It is quite unusual for the disinfo machinery to push more than one or two narratives at any one time. From a communications perspective, it’s all about sticking to the message. Too many narratives risks them being drowned. This underscores the professionalism behind their approach.
Therefore, I have disregarded the grief-filled, bitter ramblings of Owen Jones (whom I consider to be just consistently plain wrong about everything, rather than a paid malign actor). I have also ignored the rantings of those who are straight-up antisemites (Jake Shields, etc), as their messaging is not “on brand” enough to suggest that they are anything more than unhinged.
The key narratives are two-fold:
Sinwar died a hero fighting on the frontline;
Israel has just condemned the remaining hostages.
Plainly, these narratives are nonsense. Sinwar was forced out of one tunnel and died trying to get to another. The IDF disrupted the tunnel system to force him above ground, then closed a noose around him. He ran into the cordon and died wounded and defeated. Here are the scenes being lionised by the propaganda merchants:
All I see here is a wounded and beaten man throwing a stick in frustration, knowing the immediate inevitability of his own death at the hands of the hated Yahud. Quite some distance from the heroism claimed by Iran:
There is an argument that the IDF should not have released these images and videos as it gives fuel to the fire of the “hero” narrative—I disagree. Sinwar’s death was always going to lead to his lionisation as a martyr, and at least having the videos shows the lie to the myth.
The hostages narrative also makes no sense. There is credible and logical reporting that the 6 hostages murdered in the tunnels in August were Sinwar’s “bodyguard” hostages, who were executed as the IDF closed in. Their degraded physical condition was in danger of slowing down Sinwar’s party as they made their escape. There has been no indication since the November 2023 ceasefire that Hamas have ever been willing to make a deal on the hostages. There is a possible argument that Hamas may exact retribution for Sinwar’s death by harming the remaining hostages, but that strikes me as further testimony (as if any were needed) to the fact that Hamas are animals and therefore this war is just, rather than representing a criticism of the IDF’s prosecution of Sinwar as a target.
We will see the strategic fallout from Sinwar’s death over the coming days and weeks. My guess is that it will go one of two ways: it will either make no difference at all, or we will see small movement on the Hamas side. Either way, my best guess right now is that it will not be decisive. One thing is guaranteed, however, and that is that we will see an uptick in Palestinian propaganda and resultant international condemnation of Israel.
That is an easy prediction, as we are seeing it already. Increased IDF operational tempo in Gaza City, and specifically in the Jabalia refugee camp/terror nest has already caused that uptick. As ever, when the IDF increase operational tempo, the Palestinian side has no military response. They counterattack in the only way they can: online. Already we are seeing false accusations of mass slaughter and atrocities, and once again, because Israel has largely vacated the social media space, the IDF are getting hammered for it (this week I wrote an article for Spiked about the unreliability of footage coming from Gaza).
My final, again fairly easy, prediction is that the social media storm will have little impact on IDF operations. Israel has made it very clear that they are fighting to the finish, world opinion be damned.
I like dogs too much to say he died like one.
Thank you for your Substack, Andrew. Subscriber since “meeting” you on Ask a Jew and deeply appreciating your concision, clarity, expertise, and humility. Worth every penny :-)