Hamas and the Big Lie

Unpacking the disinformation campaign

“Any man who has once acclaimed violence as his method must inexorably choose falsehood as his principle.” —Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

It has been an astonishing 48 hours in the Israel-Gaza information war, with social media, traditional media and political uproar about an alleged IDF airstrike on a school in Darj Tupah, in Gaza City. Here are the simple facts, as best as can be ascertained. I will try and provide corroborating knowledge to suggest why I think this is the likely course of events.

• At some point in the last few weeks, the IDF received intelligence that Hamas and Islamic Jihad were using a mosque, attached to a school complex, as a command and control centre. This is credible: the IDF does not just randomly undertake air strikes. There is a targeting process, as for all militaries. It includes intelligence-based target identification and confirmation; confirming the evacuation status of the area; consideration of sensitive sites, such as hospitals; confirmed presence of civilians; consideration of warnings; selection of munition; and consideration of rules of engagement. One in every two planned airstrikes since the start of the war in Gaza has failed at one of these stages and has been cancelled as a result.

• An airstrike was carried out. The IDF released battle damage assessment photographs; there is no reason to disbelieve them. They clearly show two different times of day (look at the shadows) and two different angles of the buildings. Looking at the right hand side of the “after” photograph we can clearly see the missile impact area, with rubble blown both into the courtyard behind and the area in front of the mosque. From the shadow (top right) it is clear that the minaret of the mosque is still standing. This gives us a very good indication of the size of munition used. Some have alleged a 2000lb bomb, but this damage is nowhere near the scale that would be expected from a munition of that size. Israeli reports suggest three 125kg warheads were fired, the IDF confirm the use of “three precise munitions” . From damage shown in the air photos, that looks about right. Note, the school itself has sustained no visible damage and the remainder of the mosque has minimal damage. This is consistent with the IDF’s claims.