I think it is clear that Israel has been too cautious. The lesson is that Israel will be accused of wanton murder and even genocide no matter what it does and the longer a war goes on the time these accusations have to be internalized. It is not only better but strategically necessary for Israel to win these wars as quickly as possible whatever the toll. This doesn't mean wanton slaughter. But it does mean maybe not have lawyers traveling with a unit. It means maybe refusing to be responsible for providing aid to the enemy during wartime
Israel needs to win this war. *Win*, not fight to some stalemate that lets Hamas claim survival-as-victory. If Israel don't win it will vindicate the Hamas human-shield strategy, and worse it will trap the Palestinians in at least another generation of martyrdom and violence. The ones who ought to be demanding this the loudest are the so-called pro-Palestinians who claim to be their champions in the west, but that would be expecting too much.
Palestinians need to understand, to internalize and accept, that violence is not a viable strategy for them. That they need to craft a new identity not built around 'resistance' to Israel. This will be painful, and an understandably harsh ask after the battering they've just been through. But there is a future for them on the other side of it. If they stay on this path, there isn't.
I may over estimate military strategy but I think too many underestimate it. The war in Gaza needed to be prolonged long enough to pull the trigger on all of the miraculous military operations we’ve seen over the last two years, leading up to and including the first live fire demonstration of the U.S. B2 without needing to land in Qatar. That’s not a small fact. The B2 sortie helps diminish Qatars value militarily.
As much as Hamas bet that Israel would not back down to the detriment of Israel’s PR and even moral turpitude, Israel also bet on a prolonged engagement that would allow it to gain moral and military superiority over its worst enemies - in Hezbollah and Iran.
Israel has now architected the seeds of generational change in the Middle East and paved the way for the second Abraham accords.
Far from over and it won’t end quickly or cleanly, but a sea shift has been made both on the overt power of the American Israeli alliance, but moreover and more importantly the complete marginalization of the Mullahs amongst their neighbors who time and again directly or indirectly helped to protect Israel, not without conditions.
Neither a quick victory in Gaza nor a shorter war would have permitted all of that. As profoundly baseless as it is to say this, and with heavy heart for the hostages and innocents in Gaza, I would not assume Israel is merely defending itself. It’s been working for 50 years to undo the radical shift in Iran. Not for righteousness, colonial pursuit or religious zealotry, but merely for a longer term path of survival.
I also would not assume that the Israeli American alliance has completed all its goals. That will depend in large part to how the Iranians respond, how Syria settles in (if at all), and if Lebanon can change its parasitic host relationship with Irans proxies. You won’t see a durable conclusion from Israel until the Abraham accords are signed by the Saudis and hopefully the others recently mentioned.
I also would not ignore the strategic pressure it places on Russia who has depended on Iran for support, which can only fall from here.
Based on more recent events it may seem by design or third order effect the PA is also losing control. While I don’t think Israel truly wants to expand its borders I believe they want (and now deserve) control of the security apparatus for all of Gaza and the West Bank with a tolerant Palestinian leadership to hopefully build a new generation of coexistence. And my pie in the sky hope is that this generation of Israelis may reward the next generation of Palestinians with fuller autonomy in time.
Whether you like or dislike the Israeli leadership it’s fairly plain to see they won’t let go until they complete their objectives. And they’ve been planning for 50 years. If you don’t believe that watch young Netanyahu speak. He hasn’t changed a bit.
Even as Russia's war is one of imperial conquest as opposed to Israel's war of self-defense and survival and Russia targeting civilians on purpose, no one is accusing Russia of genocide. The hypocrisy is glaring.
Just noting that on the question of genocide, a once-respected Israeli scholar of genocide, Omar Bartov published an op-ed in the New York Times relying on such non-experts as UN Special Rapporteur for the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese who never qualified as a lawyer, and Amnesty International, which is currently campaigning to alter the legal definition, and for which Bartov is getting a shellacking on X.
I'd like to make sure that I'm understanding the following statement correctly, that among Gazan deaths within an unstated age range (from over 13 years up to mid-50s) 72% are male (which would be wildly disproportionate to the male: female population split):
Even by the Gaza Health Ministry’s own figures, 72% of fighting-age deaths are males.
"Yet, these figures are routinely misrepresented in Western media, partly due to misreporting and partly due to a desire for moral clarity in a complex war".
I very much appreciated your discussion on need for aid trucks to Gaza. No matter how many trucks were allowed in, the mainstream media most often compared that to the 500 trucks supposedly needed to avert famine. Must not let UNRWA back in as long as Hamas is in control, given their complicity in October 7. The humanitarian aid issue has tarnished Israel's reputation.
I think it is clear that Israel has been too cautious. The lesson is that Israel will be accused of wanton murder and even genocide no matter what it does and the longer a war goes on the time these accusations have to be internalized. It is not only better but strategically necessary for Israel to win these wars as quickly as possible whatever the toll. This doesn't mean wanton slaughter. But it does mean maybe not have lawyers traveling with a unit. It means maybe refusing to be responsible for providing aid to the enemy during wartime
Well said.
I’ll add this: If Israel had really wanted to commit a “genocide”, there wouldn’t have been a single person left alive in Gaza on October 8, 2023.
And there would not have been 400 Israeli soldiers killed!
Israel needs to win this war. *Win*, not fight to some stalemate that lets Hamas claim survival-as-victory. If Israel don't win it will vindicate the Hamas human-shield strategy, and worse it will trap the Palestinians in at least another generation of martyrdom and violence. The ones who ought to be demanding this the loudest are the so-called pro-Palestinians who claim to be their champions in the west, but that would be expecting too much.
Palestinians need to understand, to internalize and accept, that violence is not a viable strategy for them. That they need to craft a new identity not built around 'resistance' to Israel. This will be painful, and an understandably harsh ask after the battering they've just been through. But there is a future for them on the other side of it. If they stay on this path, there isn't.
I may over estimate military strategy but I think too many underestimate it. The war in Gaza needed to be prolonged long enough to pull the trigger on all of the miraculous military operations we’ve seen over the last two years, leading up to and including the first live fire demonstration of the U.S. B2 without needing to land in Qatar. That’s not a small fact. The B2 sortie helps diminish Qatars value militarily.
As much as Hamas bet that Israel would not back down to the detriment of Israel’s PR and even moral turpitude, Israel also bet on a prolonged engagement that would allow it to gain moral and military superiority over its worst enemies - in Hezbollah and Iran.
Israel has now architected the seeds of generational change in the Middle East and paved the way for the second Abraham accords.
Far from over and it won’t end quickly or cleanly, but a sea shift has been made both on the overt power of the American Israeli alliance, but moreover and more importantly the complete marginalization of the Mullahs amongst their neighbors who time and again directly or indirectly helped to protect Israel, not without conditions.
Neither a quick victory in Gaza nor a shorter war would have permitted all of that. As profoundly baseless as it is to say this, and with heavy heart for the hostages and innocents in Gaza, I would not assume Israel is merely defending itself. It’s been working for 50 years to undo the radical shift in Iran. Not for righteousness, colonial pursuit or religious zealotry, but merely for a longer term path of survival.
I also would not assume that the Israeli American alliance has completed all its goals. That will depend in large part to how the Iranians respond, how Syria settles in (if at all), and if Lebanon can change its parasitic host relationship with Irans proxies. You won’t see a durable conclusion from Israel until the Abraham accords are signed by the Saudis and hopefully the others recently mentioned.
I also would not ignore the strategic pressure it places on Russia who has depended on Iran for support, which can only fall from here.
Based on more recent events it may seem by design or third order effect the PA is also losing control. While I don’t think Israel truly wants to expand its borders I believe they want (and now deserve) control of the security apparatus for all of Gaza and the West Bank with a tolerant Palestinian leadership to hopefully build a new generation of coexistence. And my pie in the sky hope is that this generation of Israelis may reward the next generation of Palestinians with fuller autonomy in time.
Whether you like or dislike the Israeli leadership it’s fairly plain to see they won’t let go until they complete their objectives. And they’ve been planning for 50 years. If you don’t believe that watch young Netanyahu speak. He hasn’t changed a bit.
One side believes life is paramount, the other seeks death. The asymmetry is explanatory, not exculpatory. Nor is it inculpatory. It is just.
Even as Russia's war is one of imperial conquest as opposed to Israel's war of self-defense and survival and Russia targeting civilians on purpose, no one is accusing Russia of genocide. The hypocrisy is glaring.
Just noting that on the question of genocide, a once-respected Israeli scholar of genocide, Omar Bartov published an op-ed in the New York Times relying on such non-experts as UN Special Rapporteur for the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese who never qualified as a lawyer, and Amnesty International, which is currently campaigning to alter the legal definition, and for which Bartov is getting a shellacking on X.
https://www.facebook.com/unwatch/posts/-exposed-francesca-albanese-finally-admits-she-is-not-a-lawyer-for-years-frances/1108026328025922/
I'd like to make sure that I'm understanding the following statement correctly, that among Gazan deaths within an unstated age range (from over 13 years up to mid-50s) 72% are male (which would be wildly disproportionate to the male: female population split):
Even by the Gaza Health Ministry’s own figures, 72% of fighting-age deaths are males.
Or due to the obvious reason, they WANT to demonize Israel before the public. They WANT to incite hatred of the Jewish state.
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"Yet, these figures are routinely misrepresented in Western media, partly due to misreporting and partly due to a desire for moral clarity in a complex war".
I am grateful for your true journalism, Andrew.
I very much appreciated your discussion on need for aid trucks to Gaza. No matter how many trucks were allowed in, the mainstream media most often compared that to the 500 trucks supposedly needed to avert famine. Must not let UNRWA back in as long as Hamas is in control, given their complicity in October 7. The humanitarian aid issue has tarnished Israel's reputation.
Well said and well written. Final paragraph👌