Emergency Briefing: SDF faces multi-front assault in Northern Syria
The Kurdish enclave is under siege from Damascus, with significant possible regional repercussions
With the world’s attention entirely on Iran, the situation in Syria is deteriorating rapidly. Prisoner camps full of the worst ISIS fighters are in danger of being abandoned. This is a crisis that could easily spin out of control. Here is a quick overview of the situation.
Latest developments at a glance (see footnote for a quick primer on the various groupings)[1]:
Syrian forces advance: Damascus’s army has declared the capture of the strategic city of Tabqa, home to Syria’s largest dam. After a swift offensive, Syrian forces are progressing further into Raqqa province. Heavy fighting continues as Kurdish-led SDF units resist in key areas, including around vital oilfields.[2]
Ceasefire collapses: a US-mediated truce falls apart amid mutual accusations. SDF fighters withdrawing under the deal were ambushed by pro-government militias, and now remain besieged in Aleppo province, with Kurdish authorities pleading for guarantees of safe passage.[3]
Turkish intervention: Ankara openly supports Damascus’s campaign. A Turkish drone strike targeted SDF positions near Tabqa[4], and US intelligence reports that Syria’s operation is being carried out “backed by the Turkish army”.[5] Turkey’s foreign minister indicated support for force, insisting the SDF must withdraw or face military action.[6]
Kurdish “general mobilization”: the Autonomous Administration in the Kurdish-led northeast (Rojava) has declared a state of “general mobilization”, calling the conflict an “existential war” and urging civilians to arm themselves in defence of their region.[7] SDF leaders decry Damascus’s “betrayal” of last year’s peace accords and vow to hold critical ground.[8]
Humanitarian crisis: fighting has displaced tens of thousands. Around 150,000 people fled recent clashes in Aleppo[9], with reports of new evacuations as fighting intensifies. Vital infrastructure is being damaged. A Euphrates bridge and water pipelines in Raqqa have been destroyed amid the chaos, raising concerns about civilian suffering.[10]
International alarm: Washington is calling for an immediate halt to the offensive, warning that an expanded conflict could destabilise the region and even lead to escapes of ISIS detainees if SDF prison guards are diverted.[11] France and regional leaders are also urging de-escalation, as Russia maintains a low profile, observing pledges that its military interests in Syria will be respected.[12]
Graphic: Adam Ashby Gibbard
