As with the killing of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024, it is unlikely that we will ever know the absolute truth of what happened yesterday in Lebanon. So far, the Lebanese Health Ministry report at least 9 killed, 200 in critical condition, and nearly 3,000 were injured after thousands of pagers exploded. Videos on social media show frequent injuries to hands and faces.
There are mixed theories as to what happened. We know certain things must have happened: the network must have been compromised, and something must have made an explosion big enough to maim in this manner.
In terms of the network, signals analyst friends suggest that the pager network was hacked through human intelligence sources: someone may have handed over the root keys to Hezbollah’s pagers and their core network has been infiltrated. Essentially, the theory is that someone has given passwords to Israel, who watched and waited until the time was right to detonate the pagers.
However, in terms of the charge, most sources agree that the explosions seen were bigger than what would usually be expected from an exploding battery. In additions, overheating batteries also warm up significantly before exploding, warning the user. This means there must have been a compromise at some point in the supply chain not only to insert additional explosive but also to know which batch was going to Hezbollah. Some sources suggest an injection of pentaerythrivol tetranitrate (PETN) in the batteries of these allegedly Taiwanese (although possibly made in Hungary) encrypted pagers. Other sources suggest a small amount of explosive was inserted.