I am at Ben Gurion airport. This has been another useful week gaining insight into the various aspects of the seven-front conflict currently facing Israel. Our delegation featured retired generals, former MPs, fellow think-tankers, other retired service personnel, lawyers and journalists. This trip was notable for the political access gained: most of all yesterday, with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
Their spats in Cabinet are well-documented. Having now met them both and heard their thoughts, the division is clear. I thought it would be useful to explain both positions. The key point of conflict is a ceasefire-for-hostages deal in Gaza.
Remember, of course, that Gaza is still something of a strategic sideshow. The war is all but won, but Israel is faced with the enormous question of “what next” in the Gaza Strip. I have still not seen any workable or convincing plan for reconstructing Gaza after the war; no concrete idea for who will run it; no credible articulation of who will provide law and order. This has been the gaping hole in Israel’s Gaza strategy since the start of operations last October.
Someone will do those things. It may be Hamas, it may be a Hamas proxy, it may be a third party player, such as a clan or tribe who oppose Hamas internally. I do not believe, whoever they are, that they will be especially amenable to Israel. They will, however, require obscene amounts of money from somewhere to both rebuild Gaza and maintain peace. This will be deeply unpalatable to broad sections of Israeli society.
The more pressing questions from a strategic perspective are how to return displaced Israelis to their homes in the North; how to force Hezbollah in Lebanon back over the Litani river and enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006); how to pacify the West Bank; and how to deter Iranian aggression, both by proxy and direct. The broader Iranian regional question, that is not just an Israeli problem, is how to quell the Houthi threat to Suez-bound shipping.